The Bitcoin Bubble

The chart below could represent the actual value of Bitcoin in USD (which it actually does) or it could represent the amount of media coverage Bitcoin has received. What is incredible is that as of today, one Bitcoin is actually worth about $183. So the chart should be about three times as tall.

Bitcoin-Charts

We are most definitely in a Bitcoin bubble, spurred on by increasing media coverage and people wishing to strike it rich. The NY Times wrote a lengthy introduction to BitCoin that is worth checking out. Even better reading is finance blogger Felix Salmon’s post about the currency.

I’m not sure when I first became aware of Bitcoin, but on Tumblr I posted something about it last summer. If I had put $1000 into it on that day, I would have $36,000 today. Oops.

Must download apps

I need to do posts like this more often. People are always asking me about the hot new apps, here are a couple recommendations. All of these apps are free.

Sunrise – An app to manage your schedule. It seems to be popular mainly because it is build by a bunch of former Foursquare employees and is really beautifully designed. It needs a little more support for different calendar formats before I’d use it 100% of the time.
iTunes download

Mailbox – An app to finally conquer your inbox. Most of this app’s popularity stems from how you sign up. You have to wait in line. Every time you log in the app updates you on your place in line. It was partly to build up demand, but also partly to make sure the app scaled correctly. When it goes down, you don’t have access to email. The app reportedly already broke one million downloads and was purchased by Dropbox for $100M.
iTunes download

Vine – An app to make .gifs to share on Twitter. Made by Twitter this app has really been hyped, but I’m not a huge fan. It is kinda cool I guess. You turn short movie clips into .gifs that last six seconds. You’ve probably seen them on twitter already.
iTunes download

LetterPress – A puzzle word game to play against others. My brother and I are obsessed with this. It was made by the creator of the original twitter iphone app and subject of a very popular WSJ piece (article in question).
iTunes download

Temple Run 2 – A very mindless and addictive game. You control a guy running from a giant monkey and you have to jump over chasms, duck under objects and turn corners. See if you can beat my high score on the leaderboard!
iTunes download

SnapChat – An app that allows you to send messages with an expiration date. Facebook panicked from the app’s incredible growth and after being rebuffed from an acquisition, launched a clone called Poke. It isn’t really foolproof, users can still take screenshots of what you send, but at least you’re notified when it happens.
iTunes download

Albumatic – An app to collaboratively take and share photo albums. Tired of trying to share photos after the fact? You’ll like this one. It is everything much hyped Color was supposed to be, except this one works as advertised.
iTunes download

Summly – An app for news that Yahoo just paid $30M for. And it was built by a 17 year old kid. I’m sure more will come out about the acquisition in the coming days. Apparently the technology (which summarizes news) is actually licensed and not proprietary. I’m reading that Yahoo was more interested in the team than the tech anyway.
iTunes download

Circa – An app for news. Much like the one before, except I use this one a ton. They take popular news and format it all for a mobile experience. It is really well done.
iTunes download

Path 3.0 – Social networking for just you and your friends. Former Facebooker and inventor of Facebook Connect, Dave Morin, launched version three of Path recently. Seems really great, but getting my friends to use it so it is valuable seems like too much effort.
iTunes download

I can’t wait to switch to T-Mobile

File that under things I never thought I’d say.

T-Mobile’s CEO is making waves today saying it is time to “Stop the Bullshit” and he couldn’t be more right. The iPhone is finally coming to T-Mobile which is the last major US carrier to not have it. More significantly the company won’t be following the standard phone subsidizing model the rest of the industry uses.

Customers will have the option of either buying a phone outright (somewhere in the neighborhood of $550-$600 total) or put $99 down and have the cost subsidized as an itemized part of their bill. This is how the other carriers sell you an iPhone at half the actual cost. The difference here is that once you have paid off the phone you’ll stop being charged for it.

Your smartphone bill is really high because you are paying for the full cost of your phone over time. That’s why you get locked into a two year contract. But the moment that two years is up your bill doesn’t change. Instead you’re just getting ripped off by even more.

T-Mobile also plans to offer $50 for unlimited EVERYTHING (voice, text and data) with no contract length. Wow. The Verge and Ars Technica have some brief coverage.

An update on boaw.com invites

This week we got news that A Small World was kicking out members to maintain the “integrity” of their membership. At the same time, my review of ASW’s spiritual successor Best of All Worlds was one of my top blog posts of 2012.

That post still gets me a few emails a week asking for invites, so I’m making this post in response. Unfortunately they have closed off invites and I do not have any more. If I get them in the future I’ll tweet it out and give them on a first come, first serve basis. Mainly because I’m not interested in keeping a list of who asked first. You can follow me on twitter if you’re still interested in a Best of all Worlds Invite.

That said, boaw.com seems a bit dead. There really hasn’t been much activity since it originally launched last Summer.

Shots fired as new war over search begins

Facebook made a major announcement this morning. It wasn’t a phone like some people keep predicting (which is never happening). They announced they are launching Graph Search (use that link to sign up for the beta), which allows you to search a dataset of a “billion people and a trillion connections.” This is potentially a really big deal. This is how Facebook stays relevant and competes with Google. I say potentially because it depends on the product working as well as the stylish videos indicate it does. If everyone legitimately “liked” everything they actually like, everyone used Facebook consistently, and so on, then there is some potential. At the end of the day I don’t think there’s enough relevant data to make this work.

The tech news cycle is in overdrive covering this, a few of the better stories to check out:

My two favorite reactions from twitter are as follows.

TechCrunch’s MG Siegler:

Box.net’s Aaron Levie:

So far FB’s stock is actually down. I guess investors weren’t all that impressed. But if the media is to be believed, pretty much every site that even uses a search box is doing to get crushed. We will see.

Hacktivist dead at 26

A lot has been written about the death of Aaron Swartz in the past few days. I don’t have much to add to the conversation other than to say it’s extremely disconcerting to encounter someone your own age only to hear about their death months later. If you’re only going to read one thing about his story, check out Lawrence Lessig’s blog post titled Prosecutor as Bully. His NY Times obituary is also worth checking out for a very high level overview if you aren’t familiar with the case.

Foursquare takes on Yelp

Last week Foursquare CEO Dennis Crowley sat down for an interview at LES co-working space Projective. The event was part of Pando Daily’s ongoing speaker series. Since it was a short five minute walk from my apartment, I decided to check it out. PandoDaily’s Sarah Lacy tried to get in several gotcha moments. First, asking about a potential acquisition offer from Yahoo (Crowley deflected) and then leading into an even bigger question with, “this is probably going to piss you off, but…” Back to the Yahoo question though. Crowley answered by saying something along the lines that he doesn’t really know what their new strategy is and how his company would fit in. He also mentioned that just because he was seen talking to someone doesn’t mean anything. He talks to people from lots of different companies, that’s just how it works. From the glances they were exchanging, I would guess that something is going on here. Foursquare seems like a perfect acquisition target for Marissa Mayer at Yahoo. The other gotcha question is as follows:

I want to ask you broadly about liquidation of shares and cashing out and secondary markets and how you guys have viewed that. And the particular story I heard about Foursquare was that there was a guy who was you know, a fairly senior level guy who wasn’t working out very well, who you guys got rid of. And about the same time there was a kind of stupid rich man in New York who really wanted to get some shares of a hot up and coming internet company, knew nothing about the space, found out something about Foursquare, some how got hooked up with this guy who had just been fired from Foursquare. I believe it was around the time you were doing your Series C and basically said well what was the valuation of the Series C and someone told him so he said, well what if I pay you three times that. Like he had no idea how this worked, bought out this guy’s shares, news trickled back to Foursquare, there wasn’t a lot of allowance for liquidity among the employees and the employees were furious because this douchebag who had been fired just got cashed out triple times while the guys still working at the company weren’t.”

(cue audience laughter)

Crowley declined to answer, but was surprisingly well natured about the whole thing. Based on his reaction, I’d say he knew exactly what she was talking about.

Overall the entire exchange was fascinating, although most of the audience questions weren’t very thoughtful. One thing Crowley could actually talk about was where Foursquare is heading in the future. He spoke a lot about the data (over three billion check-ins) and what that allows them to do. He also hinted at being able to directly take on Yelp with Foursquare’s Explore feature.

That direct competition was rolled out today. Foursquare’s web site is now giant discovery tool for places in your area. You can see it live on Foursquare.com.

Gangnam Style’s Rise to Cultural Phenomenon Has Now Escalated to Conspiracy Levels

Suddenly PSY’s Gangnam Style is a huge deal in the US. For those of you who read my Tumblr, you were ahead of the curve on this one.

PSY has been all over American media for the past few weeks. I almost went to his appearance on the Today Show, which featured cringe inducing cuts to the show’s hosts trying to do his trademark, “dress classy and dance cheesy” moves (still not worth waking up that early).

The song has spawned a massive Wikipedia entry, thought pieces by the Atlantic Monthly on what it is like to grow up in the part of South Korea referenced as well as the hidden meaning behind the subversive lyrics. Even the New Yorker has gotten in on the action by publishing a longform piece on the cultural significant of K-Pop. And now there is a web site purporting to have uncovered a vast Gangnam conspiracy where it’s alleged that YouTube is trying to downplay how well liked the video is and instead promoting LMFAO.

Most interesting about watching PSY’s meteoric rise (other than being validated for trying to convince some friends to learn the dance), is trying to distill the signs that something is going to become incredibly popular. Whether it’s an idea, a web product or a silly music video, watching something go viral is fascinating. Last week I saw BuzzFeed CEO Jonah Peretti speak on this very topic. According to Peretti, “in order for an idea to replicate it has to be simple enough for a friend to talk about it at a party.” When explaining in the context of one of his own viral hits he said “it hit something deeply personal that ties in with people’s sense of identity.” Gangnam Style definitely hits the first one, but I’m less sure about the second (unless you’re really into silly dancing). Virality is notoriously difficult to accurately predict.

At the same time, it’s easy get obscured by the Baader Meinhof Phenomenon, which briefly put, is:

…the phenomenon where one happens upon some obscure piece of information– often an unfamiliar word or name– and soon afterwards encounters the same subject again, often repeatedly. Anytime the phrase “That’s so weird, I just heard about that the other day” would be appropriate, the utterer is hip-deep in Baader-Meinhof.

And this is just the information they make publicly available. Google Trends has all sorts of interesting tools in this area.

The two most telling signs that Gangnam Style was becoming popular were, that everyone and their brother were making video parodies (the best by far is College Humor’s Mitt Romney Style) and that every conceivable angle of the story was being covered by the media (see a few paragraphs back). The main problem here is that by the time the average person picks up on something, it’s already peaked. The value lies at discovering something before everyone knows about it and being able to consistently make predictions as to what will rise quickly in popularity.

So how do you stay on top of trends? How to you find out if something is breaking as early as possible? Twitter, Google and many others are actively working on making it easier to figure this out. Take a look at what’s rising in popularity in NYC this morning according to Google searches:

Google also has less specific trends it uncovers. Take a look at the three most discussed topics in the news today:

One of the problems is that these topics are very general and more well known. What about something completely new? What about a moment like Gangnam Style that no one is really familiar with? It would only show up here after it’s already been on the rise for a long time. With people publishing their every thought to social media outlets, it’s getting easier to figure out exactly what people are talking about, but prediction is still lagging behind.

I spend a lot of time thinking about how to identify trends and then stay on top of those trends. Influencers are a key part of this. The traditional view of influencers isn’t completely accurate. Influencers don’t always just make trends, they also get out in front of trends that will be big and are then credited for creating (or at least influencing) them. At the same time though, if you can predict trends, you can more easily make them.

Craigslist clusterfuck

Craigslist is one of those ubiquitous, old school internet properties. Started back in 1995, it’s safe to say it has gotten a little stagnant. It still looks exactly like it did when it launched and has failed to keep up on more recent innovations. Yet somehow it still dominates the market. A series of events over the past few weeks have brought up some questions about the site’s future relevance and questionable business dealings. I’ll get back to this in a bit, but first I need to explain how we got here in the first place.

Padmapper was a site run by a single web developer, trying to make apartment searching just a little less painful. This especially resonated with me because at the time I was looking for a new place in New York (which is an absolute nightmare). What he was doing was scrapping data from a variety of sources (mainly Craigslist) and then aggregating all those apartment listings and plotting them on a map. The map then had these great filters for important things like location, rent, bedrooms, bathrooms and type of lease. For a place like New York this was especially important because location is very important. A tool to sort through all the terrible listings and just focus on the good ones saves so much time. (New Jersey does not count as being five minutes from midtown).

At some point his little site got too big and caught the attention of Craig Newmark and the gang at Craigslist. The normal Silicon Valley response would have been to offer to buy Padmapper and bring the developer on board at Craigslist to build innovative features like this into the site. Instead they sent a cease and desist letter to Padmapper and threatened to sue if the site continued to use their data. The developer claims he tried to get in touch with the Craigslist legal team to no avail. Unable to even have a conversation with Craigslist, Padmapper was forced to stop using that data, but only temporarily. It’s important to point out that, while Padmapper was using Craiglist’s data, they were bringing users back to the original posting on Craigslist. They were serving ads on the map mashup, but they argued, were not taking anything away from Craigslist or stealing their users per say.

Enter 3Taps, a company that makes access to data on the web easier and more convenient to use. They take major sites like Craigslist and scrape the data from Google’s indexed cache and then turn it into a well-documented API for web developers to build upon. The distinction was key for Padmapper, 3Taps turns Google into a middle man in this entire situation. No one is dumb enough to sue Google, right? Satisfied that this would be a legal workaround, Padmapper turned back on the Craiglist listings, but this time through 3Tap as opposed to directly. The result? Craigslist sued them both.

All while this is going on, Craig Newmark is abdicating any responsibility for the situation, constantly tweeting things along the lines of him being the customer service rep and Jim Buckmaster, being the CEO, is the person these questions should be directed to. Newmark is estimated by some sources to be worth more than a billion dollars as a result of the empire he has built around Craigslist. To this day he still goes through and manually responds to posts flagged for abuse, answers the phones and responds to customer complaint emails. For him it has always been more about the community and bringing people together, rather than anything more material, like making money. Despite this hippie mentality, the company is for some reason notoriously litigious.

Around the same time Craigslist makes some moves internally to update their terms of service to say that users are giving exclusive rights over their listings. Seems like a clear move to bolster their legal case against Padmapper, 3Taps or any future targets.

To me, this entire thing is very bizarre. Why would you even sue these people? They aren’t doing anything that hurts your core business, if anything they are improving on and adding to it. You’re generating tons of negative press and provoking the ire of the internet masses, which is never a good idea.

You would think Newmark would be worried about some new innovative take on the classifieds coming along and wiping him out. He hasn’t improved the site since the very beginning. And yet, no one has come along and destroyed him like he destroyed the newspaper classifieds before him. There’s a saying that when an industry ceases to innovate, they start to hire lobbyists and lawyers. I wonder when he hired his first lawyer.

All of this got me thinking about a bit of news I saw a few months back. TechCrunch had discovered that Craigslist had posted an ad (on Craigslist of course), seeking a user experience expert to make the site, “faster, friendlier and easier.” It also mentions a need for mobile development skills. To me this indicates that they might finally be working on an internal project to roll out some changes and get with the future. It would explain why they didn’t just buy Padmapper and instead want to snuff them out as even a potential competitor. If they have been working on an internal project for months now, they might be close to rolling something out. And now there are reports that in certain markets, they are testing new embedded maps in ads. Nothing too revolutionary, but at least it is a step in the right direction.

My prediction is that within the next year, Craigslist is going to slowly roll out a lot of small iterations to the site, never making it seem like a major redesign, but twelve months from now we will be looking at a very different experience. Newmark himself has admitted that he doesn’t really know why Craigslist is so successful and as a result he has been very hesitant to change it.

The legal implications of data scraping could have large ramifications and even set some legal precedent that might impact innovation on the web. But all indications are that this thing is going to drag out and won’t be revolved anytime soon.

In my mind, Craigslist is dominant because of network externalities. Each additional user makes the service even more valuable and entrenched. They have now captured such a large market share, it seems nearly impossible for a new company to come along and disrupt them. However, time and time again we’ve seen companies in this seemingly unassailable position be beaten into irrelevance (MySpace, Yahoo search, etc.).

I’ll use this case to further support the thesis I started to explain in my Best of All Worlds Review.

In my mind Facebook’s death knell will be a proliferation of niche social networking sites eating away at Facebook’s giant user base. Best of All Worlds is merely the first of many to come. Facebook’s death will be one of a thousand tiny paper cuts.

Although I was talking about Facebook, the argument is the same. The only way Craigslist gets disrupted and replaced is by more niche services eating away at key verticals. There are a lot of verticals within the site (furniture, real estate, etc.) that are large enough to have a dedicated site built around them. These things are certainly cyclical in nature, progress is inevitable.

Additional interesting reading on the topic:

You should also be keeping up with my Tumblr

It is called Inside Kyle Libra’s Mind. It’s more of a constant stream of interesting or funny things I find on the web as opposed to (slightly) more developed thoughts I write here. Anything that makes me pause and think, or pause and chuckle. Sometimes both. You should be checking it out every day, because it gets updated every day at Noon (thanks automatic queue system).

In the month of August I crossed over 1,000 posts and I randomly saw the company founder riding a motorcycle through New York. Bit of a fanboy moment. I’m pretty sure most people wouldn’t recognize David Karp, but of course I did. I should have taken a photo and tweeted it at him, could have been my moment to get a big break for the Tumblr, right?

Would you recognize this guy?